V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
3.05%
1 Week
3.04%
1 Month
3.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0023 | 0.28 |
| αARCH | 0.0311 | 2.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9689 | 23.38*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 3.85*** |
| δpower | 0.8067 | 1.07 |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0023 | 0.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 2.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9689 | 23.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 3.85*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8067 | 1.07 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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