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V-Lab

Schwab Core Bond ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

3.05%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

3.04%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

3.02%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Schwab Core Bond ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 daysδ = 0.81 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0023
0.28
αARCH0.0311
2.99***
βGARCH0.9689
23.38***
γleverage1.0000
3.85***
δpower0.8067
1.07

0.991

Persistence

73d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0023
0.28
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0311
2.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9689
23.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
3.85***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8067
1.07

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days