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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

36.21%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

36.20%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

36.16%

decreased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0420
2.67***
αARCH0.0315
3.12***
βGARCH0.9403
112.36***
γleverage0.0398
1.94*

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0420
2.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0315
3.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9403
112.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0398
1.94*

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days