V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
36.21%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
36.20%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
36.16%
decreased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0420 | 2.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0315 | 3.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9403 | 112.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.0398 | 1.94* |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0420 | 2.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0315 | 3.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9403 | 112.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0398 | 1.94* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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