V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
32.05%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
32.11%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
32.34%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~81 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0423 | 2.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0316 | 3.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9401 | 112.10*** |
| γleverage | 0.0396 | 1.93* |
0.992
Persistence81d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0423 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 3.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9401 | 112.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0396 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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