V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
38.02%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
37.98%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
37.83%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 126% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0422 | 10.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 12.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9401 | 448.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0399 | 7.73*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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