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State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

32.05%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

32.11%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

32.34%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~81 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0423
2.70***
αARCH0.0316
3.13***
βGARCH0.9401
112.10***
γleverage0.0396
1.93*

0.992

Persistence

81d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0423
2.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0316
3.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9401
112.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0396
1.93*

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

81 days