V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
13.08%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
12.26%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
10.53%
decreased by 2.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 27% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0644 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2622 | 14.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6962 | 32.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2070 | 6.39*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5666 | 3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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