V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
14.73%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
15.44%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
17.37%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2477 | 8.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.1352 | 7.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8171 | 38.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0317 | 3.62*** |
| γ2 | -0.0433 | -2.54** |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2477 | 8.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1352 | 7.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8171 | 38.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0317 | 3.62*** |
| γ2 | -0.0433 | -2.54** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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