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V-Lab

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

13.04%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

13.41%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

14.60%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0370
17.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0181
5.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8620
239.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1894
20.96***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days