V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
13.32%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
13.66%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
14.76%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0367 | 4.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0190 | 1.47 |
| βGARCH | 0.8625 | 60.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.1859 | 5.17*** |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0367 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0190 | 1.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8625 | 60.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1859 | 5.17*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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