V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
13.04%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
13.41%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
14.60%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0370 | 17.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0181 | 5.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8620 | 239.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1894 | 20.96*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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