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Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

13.32%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

13.66%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

14.76%

increased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

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graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0367
4.28***
αARCH0.0190
1.47
βGARCH0.8625
60.16***
γleverage0.1859
5.17***

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0367
4.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0190
1.47
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8625
60.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1859
5.17***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days