Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
26.51%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
26.19%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Month
25.06%
decreased by 2.35%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0371 | 4.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0194 | 1.51 |
| βGARCH | 0.8632 | 60.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.1833 | 5.13*** |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0371 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 1.51 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8632 | 60.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1833 | 5.13*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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