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V-Lab

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.54%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

15.73%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Month

16.36%

decreased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0367
4.30***
αARCH0.0190
1.47
βGARCH0.8628
60.46***
γleverage0.1852
5.18***

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0367
4.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0190
1.47
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8628
60.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1852
5.18***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days