Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.54%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
15.73%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
16.36%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0367 | 4.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0190 | 1.47 |
| βGARCH | 0.8628 | 60.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.1852 | 5.18*** |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0367 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0190 | 1.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8628 | 60.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1852 | 5.18*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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