V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.63%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
13.96%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
15.00%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0370 | 17.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0187 | 5.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 238.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1884 | 20.72*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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