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V-Lab

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

13.58%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

14.51%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

16.95%

increased by 2.91%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

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graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2359
8.42***
αARCH0.1354
7.61***
βGARCH0.8180
39.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0293
4.48***
γ2-0.0382
-4.56***

0.953

Persistence

15d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2359
8.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1354
7.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8180
39.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0293
4.48***
γ2-0.0382
-4.56***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

15 days