V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
13.58%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
14.51%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
16.95%
increased by 2.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2359 | 8.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.1354 | 7.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8180 | 39.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0293 | 4.48*** |
| γ2 | -0.0382 | -4.56*** |
0.953
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2359 | 8.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1354 | 7.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8180 | 39.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0293 | 4.48*** |
| γ2 | -0.0382 | -4.56*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
15 days
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