V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.77%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
17.31%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
18.82%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2408 | 8.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1361 | 7.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8165 | 38.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0305 | 4.60*** |
| γ2 | -0.0399 | -4.69*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
Other Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs