UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.78%
increased by 1.02%
1 Week
14.95%
increased by 1.19%
1 Month
15.14%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2702 | 9.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1391 | 2.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6340 | 6.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0274 | 3.32*** |
0.773
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2702 | 9.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1391 | 2.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6340 | 6.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0274 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.773
Half-life:
3 days
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