Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

17.39%

decreased by 2.25%

1 Week

16.72%

decreased by 2.92%

1 Month

15.85%

decreased by 3.79%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2611
9.46***
αARCH0.1377
2.80***
βGARCH0.6435
6.94***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0271
3.16***

0.781

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2611
9.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1377
2.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6435
6.94***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0271
3.16***

Persistence:

0.781

Half-life:

3 days