V-Lab
UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.10%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
13.98%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
15.00%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2703 | 9.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1499 | 2.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6334 | 6.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0299 | 3.21*** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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