V-Lab
UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
13.03%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
13.17%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
13.64%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0174 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0059 | 1.99** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9475 | 227.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0625 | 6.73*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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