UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.70%
increased by 1.63%
1 Week
16.15%
increased by 2.08%
1 Month
16.95%
increased by 2.88%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1602 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0735 | 1.75* |
| βGARCH | 0.7425 | 13.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.1063 | 0.94 |
0.869
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1602 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0735 | 1.75* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7425 | 13.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1063 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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