V-Lab
UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.48%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
15.39%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
16.84%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 114% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1819 | 13.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0913 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7126 | 45.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1039 | 3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.856
Half-life:
4 days
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