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UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

16.65%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

16.84%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

17.21%

increased by 0.51%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1476
3.46***
αARCH0.0705
1.76*
βGARCH0.7564
14.04***
γleverage0.1039
0.95

0.879

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1476
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0705
1.76*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7564
14.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1039
0.95

Persistence:

0.879

Half-life:

5 days