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UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

19.44%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

19.37%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Month

19.12%

decreased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

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graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0180
1.26
αARCH0.0056
0.47
βGARCH0.9475
56.70***
γleverage0.0627
1.69*

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0180
1.26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0056
0.47
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9475
56.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0627
1.69*

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days