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V-Lab

UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

13.03%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

13.17%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

13.64%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0174
4.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0059
1.99**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9475
227.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0625
6.73***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days