V-Lab
UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
19.44%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
19.37%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
19.12%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0180 | 1.26 |
| αARCH | 0.0056 | 0.47 |
| βGARCH | 0.9475 | 56.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.0627 | 1.69* |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0180 | 1.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0056 | 0.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9475 | 56.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0627 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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