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V-Lab

UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.48%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

15.39%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

16.84%

increased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 114% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1819
13.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0913
7.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7126
45.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1039
3.47***

Persistence:

0.856

Half-life:

4 days