V-Lab
Neuberger Flexible Credit Income ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.65%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.81%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
3.24%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0046 | 3.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0607 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8473 | 45.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7944 | 8.97*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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