V-Lab
Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
33.83%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
35.93%
increased by 1.75%
1 Month
38.43%
increased by 4.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6380 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0942 | 1.31 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6955 | 4.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.9506 | -0.29 |
| γ2 | -1.0634 | -0.20 |
| γ3 | 6.6765 | 1.69* |
| γ4 | -7.7474 | -3.04*** |
Persistence:
0.790
Half-life:
3 days
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