Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
36.50%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
37.07%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
36.83%
decreased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2024 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8082 | 22.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1008 | 5.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0271 | 0.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1221 | 0.69 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8779 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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