V-Lab
Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
24.22%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
24.33%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
24.10%
decreased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8734 | 17.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0718 | 3.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1088 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2286 | 0.16 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7222 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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