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V-Lab

Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

36.50%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

37.07%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Month

36.83%

decreased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2024 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8082
22.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1008
5.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0271
0.21
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1221
0.69
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8779
3.51***

Persistence:

0.859

Half-life:

5 days