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V-Lab

Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

32.37%

decreased by 1.86%

1 Week

31.71%

decreased by 2.52%

1 Month

29.55%

decreased by 4.68%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2024 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7923
2.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0784
6.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9635
96.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0666
3.06***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

19 days