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V-Lab

Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

22.97%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

22.85%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

22.46%

decreased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7362
2.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0752
6.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9686
123.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4540
2.68***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days