V-Lab
Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22.97%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
22.85%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
22.46%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7362 | 2.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0752 | 6.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9686 | 123.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4540 | 2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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