Jpmorgan Actv DVP MRS EQ ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.37%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Week
31.71%
decreased by 2.52%
1 Month
29.55%
decreased by 4.68%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2024 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7923 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9635 | 96.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0666 | 3.06*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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