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V-Lab

Bitwise XRP ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

30.39%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

35.27%

increased by 4.97%

1 Month

37.51%

increased by 7.21%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bitwise XRP ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 20, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
108.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1861
49.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-111.93***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.3577
3.77***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4095
7.47***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.436

Half-life:

1 days