V-Lab
Bitwise XRP ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
179.61%
1 Week
172.63%
1 Month
169.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 100% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | 268.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -33.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.37 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5199 | 0.39 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4801 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.750
Half-life:
2 days
Other Bitwise XRP ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs