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V-Lab

Bitwise XRP ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

54.02%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

62.58%

increased by 7.94%

1 Month

67.39%

increased by 12.75%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bitwise XRP ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

18.8841
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1636
3.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5957
10.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7039
1.67*

Persistence:

0.596

Half-life:

1 days