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V-Lab

Bitwise XRP ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

139.76%

increased by 24.20%

1 Week

110.17%

decreased by 5.39%

1 Month

84.66%

decreased by 30.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bitwise XRP ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

21.4462
5.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2307
4.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6182
11.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6052
2.77***

Persistence:

0.618

Half-life:

1 days