V-Lab
Bitwise XRP ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
139.76%
increased by 24.20%
1 Week
110.17%
decreased by 5.39%
1 Month
84.66%
decreased by 30.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.4462 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2307 | 4.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6182 | 11.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6052 | 2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.618
Half-life:
1 days
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