V-Lab
Bitwise XRP ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
54.02%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
62.58%
increased by 7.94%
1 Month
67.39%
increased by 12.75%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 18.8841 | 5.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1636 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5957 | 10.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7039 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.596
Half-life:
1 days
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