V-Lab
Bitwise XRP ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.34%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
24.34%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
24.34%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3441 | 1.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7267 | 0.81 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 134.5630 | 1.19 |
| γ2 | -283.2078 | -1.85* |
| γ3 | 270.6063 | 3.35*** |
| γ4 | -162.7293 | -2.59*** |
| γ5 | -20.5784 | -0.29 |
Persistence:
0.727
Half-life:
2 days
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