V-Lab
Bitwise XRP ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
52.92%
decreased by 15.27%
1 Week
62.92%
decreased by 5.27%
1 Month
66.67%
decreased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.48) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.1442 | 16.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4142 | 5.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0352 | 6.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.4800 | 4.76*** |
Persistence:
0.449
Half-life:
1 days
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