V-Lab
Bitwise XRP ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
51.95%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
52.72%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
55.09%
increased by 2.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. The volatility power δ = 1.23 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2245 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0700 | 0.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8903 | 42.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.33 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2302 | 7.75*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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