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V-Lab

Bitwise XRP ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

51.95%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

52.72%

increased by 0.56%

1 Month

55.09%

increased by 2.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bitwise XRP ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. The volatility power δ = 1.23 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2245
2.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0700
0.59
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8903
42.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.33
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2302
7.75***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days