V-Lab
Bitwise XRP ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
109.84%
decreased by 36.38%
1 Week
71.78%
decreased by 74.44%
1 Month
51.62%
decreased by 94.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3718 | 2.35** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3776 | 1.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0052 | 0.05 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 205.3446 | 2.72*** |
| γ2 | -360.3152 | -3.17*** |
| γ3 | 283.6040 | 3.40*** |
| γ4 | -204.5801 | -2.58*** |
| γ5 | 101.9534 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.383
Half-life:
1 days
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