V-Lab
Global X Active Global Fixed Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
7.50%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
7.68%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
8.31%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 21, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5822 | 6.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0891 | 40.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9844 | 408.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9335 | 18.45*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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