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V-Lab

Vanguard CDN AGG BD IDX ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

5.01%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

5.07%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

5.03%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard CDN AGG BD IDX ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 27% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0656
10.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7824
69.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0174
2.56**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0111
0.40
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5639
0.45
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3429
0.23

Persistence:

0.857

Half-life:

4 days