V-Lab
Vanguard CDN AGG BD IDX ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
5.01%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
5.07%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
5.03%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 27% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0656 | 10.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7824 | 69.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0174 | 2.56** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0111 | 0.40 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5639 | 0.45 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3429 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.857
Half-life:
4 days
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