V-Lab
Vanguard CDN AGG BD IDX ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4.97%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
4.98%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
5.04%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0022 | 18.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0674 | 11.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9080 | 263.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0111 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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