Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.32%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
14.39%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
14.57%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2959 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1402 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8018 | 28.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.7289 | 2.16** |
| γ2 | -1.2718 | -2.44** |
| γ3 | 1.0649 | 2.97*** |
| γ4 | -0.9378 | -2.44** |
| γ5 | 1.0307 | 1.84* |
| γ6 | -1.3845 | -1.88* |
| γ7 | 1.1581 | 1.82* |
| γ8 | -0.4332 | -1.38 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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