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V-Lab

Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

14.12%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

14.24%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

14.59%

decreased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2887
4.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1393
6.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8022
28.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.7087
2.15**
γ2-1.2385
-2.43**
γ31.0415
2.99***
γ4-0.9094
-2.53**
γ50.9883
1.92*
γ6-1.3629
-1.94*
γ71.1936
1.88*
γ8-0.4852
-1.48

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days