V-Lab
Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
14.12%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
14.24%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
14.59%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2887 | 4.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1393 | 6.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8022 | 28.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.7087 | 2.15** |
| γ2 | -1.2385 | -2.43** |
| γ3 | 1.0415 | 2.99*** |
| γ4 | -0.9094 | -2.53** |
| γ5 | 0.9883 | 1.92* |
| γ6 | -1.3629 | -1.94* |
| γ7 | 1.1936 | 1.88* |
| γ8 | -0.4852 | -1.48 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
Other Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs