Wisdomtree 1-3 YR Ladd TR FD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1.52%
1 Week
1.53%
1 Month
1.55%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 14, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 43321 trading days (~171.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9734 | 175.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0531 | 6.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0720 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9567 | 0.86 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
43321 days
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