V-Lab
Wisdomtree 1-3 YR Ladd TR FD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
1.45%
1 Week
1.45%
1 Month
1.48%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 14, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0002 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9715 | 33.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0565 | 1.26 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6474 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8572 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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