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V-Lab

Wisdomtree 1-3 YR Ladd TR FD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

1.52%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

1.53%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

1.55%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Wisdomtree 1-3 YR Ladd TR FD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 14, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 43321 trading days (~171.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9734
175.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0531
6.09***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0720
0.04
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9567
0.86

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

43321 days