Wisdomtree 1-3 YR Ladd TR FD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.48%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.48%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.49%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 14, 2024 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 6.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0096 | 0.79 |
| αARCH | 0.0379 | 1.89* |
| βGARCH | 0.9829 | 38.22*** |
| νDF | 6.6530 | 0.28 |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0096 | 0.79 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0379 | 1.89* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9829 | 38.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6530 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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