V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
143.73%
decreased by 8.30%
1 Week
147.24%
decreased by 4.79%
1 Month
155.63%
increased by 3.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 110.5329 | 9.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1385 | 8.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9234 | 103.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.8418 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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