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Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

143.73%

decreased by 8.30%

1 Week

147.24%

decreased by 4.79%

1 Month

155.63%

increased by 3.60%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

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graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

110.5329
9.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1385
8.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9234
103.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.8418
1.42

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days