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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

42.49%

decreased by 2.25%

1 Week

42.36%

decreased by 2.38%

1 Month

41.86%

decreased by 2.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 97% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0594
18.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0639
11.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8937
263.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0618
7.17***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days