V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
42.49%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Week
42.36%
decreased by 2.38%
1 Month
41.86%
decreased by 2.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 97% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0594 | 18.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0639 | 11.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8937 | 263.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0618 | 7.17*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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