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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

62.34%

decreased by 3.41%

1 Week

61.90%

decreased by 3.85%

1 Month

60.21%

decreased by 5.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0581
17.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0639
11.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8945
266.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0612
7.13***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days