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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

43.89%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

43.72%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Month

43.10%

decreased by 1.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0566
17.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0599
11.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8977
265.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0623
7.45***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days