V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
62.34%
decreased by 3.41%
1 Week
61.90%
decreased by 3.85%
1 Month
60.21%
decreased by 5.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 96% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0581 | 17.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0639 | 11.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8945 | 266.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0612 | 7.13*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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