V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.89%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
43.72%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
43.10%
decreased by 1.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0566 | 17.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0599 | 11.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8977 | 265.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0623 | 7.45*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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