V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
54.87%
decreased by 3.99%
1 Week
53.70%
decreased by 5.16%
1 Month
49.94%
decreased by 8.92%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 80% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0337 | 15.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1839 | 24.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9774 | 790.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0528 | -8.76*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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