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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

61.40%

decreased by 3.43%

1 Week

61.13%

decreased by 3.70%

1 Month

60.06%

decreased by 4.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0548
17.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0990
27.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8928
260.81***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days