V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
60.82%
decreased by 3.88%
1 Week
60.23%
decreased by 4.47%
1 Month
58.05%
decreased by 6.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.55) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0538 | 11.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1065 | 31.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8778 | 284.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5482 | 14.51*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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