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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

60.82%

decreased by 3.88%

1 Week

60.23%

decreased by 4.47%

1 Month

58.05%

decreased by 6.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.55) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0538
11.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1065
31.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8778
284.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5482
14.51***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days