V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
61.19%
decreased by 3.48%
1 Week
60.73%
decreased by 3.94%
1 Month
58.52%
decreased by 6.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 210% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0406 | 12.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8750 | 209.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0853 | 16.55*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3659 | 0.96 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6396 | 1.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2801 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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