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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

43.89%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

43.74%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Month

43.19%

decreased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 107% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0603
12.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8965
273.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0646
10.76***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.2794
110.12***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days