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V-Lab

Invesco DB Oil Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

61.19%

decreased by 3.48%

1 Week

60.73%

decreased by 3.94%

1 Month

58.52%

decreased by 6.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Oil Fund MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 210% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0406
12.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8750
209.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0853
16.55***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3659
0.96
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6396
1.02
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2801
0.39

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days