V-Lab
Invesco DB Oil Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.89%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
43.74%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
43.19%
decreased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 107% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0603 | 12.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8965 | 273.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0646 | 10.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.2794 | 110.12*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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