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Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

23.33%

increased by 3.13%

1 Week

23.24%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

22.90%

increased by 2.70%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:07 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 8.07 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.5258
1.60
αscore0.1115
8.55***
βpersistence0.9868
108.15***
νDF8.0741
1.59

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.5258
1.60
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1115
8.55***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9868
108.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0741
1.59

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days