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V-Lab

Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

11.25%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

11.52%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

12.50%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.16 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5114
1.48
αARCH0.1069
8.81***
βGARCH0.9874
106.85***
νDF7.1589
1.85*

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5114
1.48
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1069
8.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
106.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1589
1.85*

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days