V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
11.53%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
11.80%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
12.73%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 09:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5204 | 5.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1071 | 35.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9875 | 429.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2439 | 7.26*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
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