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Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

12.32%

increased by 0.49%

1 Week

12.55%

increased by 0.72%

1 Month

13.35%

increased by 1.52%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

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graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5065
1.48
αARCH0.1067
8.80***
βGARCH0.9874
107.30***
νDF7.1798
1.85*

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5065
1.48
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1067
8.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
107.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1798
1.85*

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days