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Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

12.01%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

12.25%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

13.10%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 7.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5017
1.49
αARCH0.1067
8.80***
βGARCH0.9873
107.66***
νDF7.2048
1.84*

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5017
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1067
8.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9873
107.66***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2048
1.84*

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days