Skip to main content
V-Lab

Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.43%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

12.65%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

13.45%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5194
5.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1068
35.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
427.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1523
7.41***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days