V-Lab
Ishares Core Sp500 IDX (Cad) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.25%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
11.52%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
12.50%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.16 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5114 | 1.48 |
| αARCH | 0.1069 | 8.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9874 | 106.85*** |
| νDF | 7.1589 | 1.85* |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5114 | 1.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1069 | 8.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 106.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1589 | 1.85* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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