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V-Lab

iShares Semiconductor ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

66.02%

increased by 3.16%

1 Week

65.92%

increased by 3.06%

1 Month

65.53%

increased by 2.67%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares Semiconductor ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 226 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.7961
4.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0698
41.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9969
1,492.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.2143
5.37***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

226 days