iShares Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
108.36%
decreased by 7.61%
1 Week
107.45%
decreased by 8.52%
1 Month
104.38%
decreased by 11.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0073 | 0.30 |
| βGARCH | 0.8582 | 40.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.2333 | 1.72* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0531 | 0.82 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0610 | 1.01 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9390 | 18.66*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0073 | 0.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8582 | 40.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2333 | 1.72* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0531 | 0.82 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0610 | 1.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9390 | 18.66*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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