V-Lab
iShares Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
39.58%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
39.92%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
40.74%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0216 | 1.94* |
| βGARCH | 0.8917 | 69.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.0936 | 6.86*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0080 | 1.18 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0232 | 2.39** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9747 | 90.88*** |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0216 | 1.94* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8917 | 69.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0936 | 6.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0080 | 1.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0232 | 2.39** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9747 | 90.88*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
Other iShares Semiconductor ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs