V-Lab
iShares Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
66.48%
increased by 4.50%
1 Week
65.41%
increased by 3.43%
1 Month
62.11%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0212 | 7.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8923 | 214.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0935 | 26.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0081 | 5.30*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0244 | 6.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9735 | 221.30*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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