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iShares Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

38.12%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

38.52%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Month

39.71%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

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graph of iShares Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.0212
1.91*
βGARCH0.8919
69.28***
γleverage0.0938
6.89***
λ₁tau intercept0.0081
1.19
λ₂forecast adj.0.0235
2.39**
λ₃tau persistence0.9744
89.97***

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0212
1.91*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8919
69.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0938
6.89***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0081
1.19
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0235
2.39**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9744
89.97***

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days