V-Lab
iShares Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
51.62%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
51.47%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
50.20%
decreased by 1.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0209 | 7.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8918 | 214.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0945 | 26.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0081 | 5.32*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0242 | 6.14*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9738 | 226.45*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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