V-Lab
iShares Semiconductor ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.49%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
37.39%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Month
37.01%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2001 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 212% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 212% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0485 | 4.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0332 | 2.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9202 | 103.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.0704 | 3.23*** |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0485 | 4.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0332 | 2.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9202 | 103.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0704 | 3.23*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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