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V-Lab

iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

14.50%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

14.71%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

15.45%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 2, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6917
9.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0956
33.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
636.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1655
5.42***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days