V-Lab
iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
12.17%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
12.48%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
13.57%
increased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 9.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6831 | 2.48** |
| αARCH | 0.0958 | 8.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9857 | 164.20*** |
| νDF | 9.3349 | 1.34 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6831 | 2.48** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0958 | 8.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9857 | 164.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3349 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
Other iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs