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iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

12.17%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

12.48%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

13.57%

increased by 0.72%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC

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graph of iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 2, 2001 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 9.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6831
2.48**
αARCH0.0958
8.36***
βGARCH0.9857
164.20***
νDF9.3349
1.34

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6831
2.48**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0958
8.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
164.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3349
1.34

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days