iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.72%
increased by 1.07%
1 Week
14.84%
increased by 1.19%
1 Month
15.30%
increased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 265% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 265% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0450 | 3.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8384 | 53.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.1192 | 6.38*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0147 | 2.44** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0542 | 4.30*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9368 | 61.68*** |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0450 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8384 | 53.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1192 | 6.38*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0147 | 2.44** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0542 | 4.30*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9368 | 61.68*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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