iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.26%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
15.71%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
16.97%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 270% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0464 | 14.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8237 | 117.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1253 | 21.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0128 | 5.65*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0489 | 4.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9434 | 77.43*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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