V-Lab
iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.46%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
16.68%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
17.22%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 271% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 14.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8246 | 118.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1249 | 21.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0126 | 5.68*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0483 | 4.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9441 | 78.85*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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