iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.26%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
18.24%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
18.33%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:15 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 307% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 307% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.0358 | 3.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8610 | 60.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.1100 | 6.32*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2411 | 4.35*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8546 | 22.91*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0358 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8610 | 60.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1100 | 6.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2411 | 4.35*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8546 | 22.91*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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