V-Lab
iShares Select U.S. REIT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
13.36%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
13.81%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
14.83%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 268% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 268% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0463 | 3.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8251 | 49.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.1242 | 6.36*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0125 | 2.41** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0478 | 3.92*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9446 | 65.90*** |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0463 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8251 | 49.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1242 | 6.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0125 | 2.41** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0478 | 3.92*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9446 | 65.90*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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