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V-Lab

State Street SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

4.12%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

4.14%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

4.20%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1068
9.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0794
35.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9929
1,248.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.1210
5.70***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days