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V-Lab

Motley Fool Innovative Growth Factor ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.76%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Week

16.94%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Month

17.31%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Motley Fool Innovative Growth Factor ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.48) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1023
3.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1190
7.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7766
20.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4786
11.64***

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days