Motley Fool Innovative Growth Factor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
11.89%
increased by 0.67%
1 Week
13.41%
increased by 2.19%
1 Month
13.91%
increased by 2.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 383% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1305 | 43.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 112.16*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7852 | 30.34*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.380
Half-life:
1 days
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