V-Lab
Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.28%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
17.52%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
18.24%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0682 | 1.92* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9012 | 60.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1120 | 2.38** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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