V-Lab
Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.10%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
16.47%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
17.53%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0707 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8987 | 59.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1135 | 2.40** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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