Skip to main content
V-Lab

Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

17.28%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

17.52%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

18.24%

increased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0682
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9012
60.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1120
2.38**

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days