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V-Lab

Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

16.10%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

16.47%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

17.53%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Morgan Stanley PHY SM MD ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 9, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0707
1.98**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8987
59.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1135
2.40**

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days