Skip to main content
V-Lab

Sprott Active Mtls & MNS ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

38.13%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

42.14%

increased by 3.75%

1 Month

44.25%

increased by 5.86%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Sprott Active Mtls & MNS ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7776
4.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0713
5.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4971
7.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
411.18***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5018
2.57**

Persistence:

0.539

Half-life:

1 days