V-Lab
Sprott Active Mtls & MNS ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
38.13%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
42.14%
increased by 3.75%
1 Month
44.25%
increased by 5.86%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7776 | 4.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0713 | 5.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4971 | 7.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 411.18*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5018 | 2.57** |
Persistence:
0.539
Half-life:
1 days
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