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V-Lab

Sprott Active Mtls & MNS ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

70.52%

increased by 28.99%

1 Week

63.35%

increased by 21.82%

1 Month

56.22%

increased by 14.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Sprott Active Mtls & MNS ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 10, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

116
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
140.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4627
62.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-275.48***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0428
0.08
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0181
2.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9819
11.76***

Persistence:

0.713

Half-life:

2 days