V-Lab
Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.24%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
18.45%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
19.23%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 252% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.23 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0281 | 22.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0804 | 26.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9158 | 344.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4702 | 12.75*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2329 | 28.05*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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