Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.35%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
16.56%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
17.31%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-lifev = 9.73 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3891 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0824 | 7.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9897 | 163.53*** |
| νDF | 9.7331 | 1.01 |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3891 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0824 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9897 | 163.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.7331 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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