V-Lab
Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
16.97%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
17.07%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
17.50%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8846 | 74.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.1319 | 8.09*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0421 | 1.77* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1916 | 5.19*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7859 | 17.86*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8846 | 74.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1319 | 8.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0421 | 1.77* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1916 | 5.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7859 | 17.86*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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