V-Lab
Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.13%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
16.57%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
17.80%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8843 | 277.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1322 | 32.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0433 | 6.53*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1951 | 16.25*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7821 | 54.70*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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