V-Lab
Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
18.94%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
19.06%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
19.47%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 333% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 333% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0304 | 3.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0266 | 2.11** |
| βGARCH | 0.9139 | 93.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0887 | 3.52*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0304 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0266 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9139 | 93.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0887 | 3.52*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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