V-Lab
Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
17.97%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
18.23%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
19.14%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.54) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0176 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0839 | 33.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8982 | 349.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5409 | 11.36*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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