V-Lab
Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.83%
increased by 1.77%
1 Week
18.84%
increased by 1.78%
1 Month
18.86%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0755 | 6.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 7.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8789 | 61.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0260 | -2.08** |
| γ2 | 0.0667 | 3.44*** |
| γ3 | -0.0886 | -4.25*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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