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V-Lab

Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.83%

increased by 1.77%

1 Week

18.84%

increased by 1.78%

1 Month

18.86%

increased by 1.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 24, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0755
6.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0904
7.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8789
61.98***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0260
-2.08**
γ20.0667
3.44***
γ3-0.0886
-4.25***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days