V-Lab
Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
33.49%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
32.80%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
32.54%
decreased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 8, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.58) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5207 | 14.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1233 | 8.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2639 | 6.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5833 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.387
Half-life:
1 days
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