V-Lab
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.84%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Week
19.96%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Month
20.36%
decreased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.48) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0167 | 0.96 |
| αARCH | 0.1324 | 6.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8435 | 50.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.4810 | 2.59*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 6.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8435 | 50.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4810 | 2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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