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iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

19.84%

decreased by 1.44%

1 Week

19.96%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Month

20.36%

decreased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.48) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0167
0.96
αARCH0.1324
6.95***
βGARCH0.8435
50.08***
γleverage0.4810
2.59***

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0167
0.96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1324
6.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8435
50.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4810
2.59***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days